IATA warns: SAF´s biggest challenge lies in technology, not raw materials

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), in collaboration with Worley Consulting, published a compelling report on September 23, 2025, that challenges a common assumption in discussions about aviation decarbonization: it is not the shortage of sustainable raw materials that slows progress towards net zero, but the speed of technological implementation of the processes that transform those inputs into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). 

Key findings: abundantly available, but with technological bottlenecks

The IATA study starts from an optimistic perspective: there are sufficient and diverse inputs to produce the volume of SAF needed by 2050. According to estimates, approximately 500 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF will be needed annually to meet the net-zero carbon goal. Of that projected total:

More than 300 Mt could come from biomass (bio-SAF). 
The remainder (~200 Mt) could be generated through alternative routes such as Power-to-Liquid (PtL) / e-SAF. 

However, even if the raw material is there, the real limit lies in the application and technological scaling: available technologies (e.g., waste oil conversion using HEFA) still dominate the commercial industry, but they never reach sufficient scale or diversify processes to meet projected demand. 

Among the key obstacles identified:

Slow pace of technology deployment
The report argues that many of the most advanced production routes are not yet commercially mature or sufficiently installed. In particular, PtL technology, which requires renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture, requires massive investments to scale. 

Supply Infrastructure and Logistics:
Although the inputs exist, a robust logistics chain is required to reliably transport, condition, and supply them to SAF production plants. Improvements in efficiency, conversion infrastructure, and connectivity are vital. 

Policies, Coordination, and Incentives
The report highlights that without coherent policies, incentives for innovation, and alignment between governments, the energy sector, and aviation, the risk of technological stagnation is high. Regulatory certainty and multi-sector collaboration are needed to de-risk investments. 

Competition for inputs
Although not an insurmountable obstacle, competition for biomass between sectors (energy, agriculture, industry) requires that aviation be given priority in the use of these resources to achieve its goals. 

What this means for the airline industry and travelers

There's no excuse for passivity: the study confirms that the limitation isn't material sustainability, but rather the pace of transformation.

Airlines and governments must accelerate the “grounding” of SAF plants — not just planning, but building.

Investment in innovation is key: For emerging production routes, especially e-SAF, technology, energy, and aviation companies must partner.

Opportunity for regional markets: Regions with abundant renewable resources could become strategic hubs for SAF production, with a local impact on employment and sustainable development.

Growing regulatory pressure: International organizations, environmental certification bodies, and carbon markets will demand robust standards to validate the authenticity of used SAF fuel.

Conclusion: Transforming potential into reality

The IATA study leaves an urgent message: the aviation industry has the raw materials, but not the time to wait. If technological deployment doesn't accelerate dramatically this decade, decarbonization goals will become increasingly distant. Action is needed now, not rhetoric. 

Source: IATA.