Supply chain challenges could cost airlines more than $11 billion by 2025

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published a report in collaboration with consultancy Oliver Wyman warning that current supply chain challenges could cost airlines more than $11 billion by 2025. The study, titled Reviving the Commercial Aircraft Supply Chain , looks at how parts shortages, delivery delays for new aircraft, and production bottlenecks are impacting the operational efficiency and profitability of the global airline industry.

According to the document, airlines are facing a combination of problems that directly impact their costs and growth capacity. Delays in the delivery of new aircraft are forcing many companies to continue operating older aircraft, which require more maintenance and consume less fuel efficiently. Added to this is the difficulty in accessing spare parts and engines, which increases downtime and the need to rent temporary components.

IATA estimates that the additional fuel required by the use of aging fleets will represent approximately $4.2 billion in additional expenditure in 2025. This is compounded by $3.1 billion in additional maintenance, $2.6 billion in engine leasing, and $1.4 billion in increased spare parts inventory that airlines must maintain as a preventive measure against market shortages. Together, these factors significantly increase operating costs and pressure profit margins, in a context where air traffic recovery remains solid but revenues have not yet fully offset structural cost increases.

The report also notes that supply chain disruptions limit airlines' ability to respond to growing passenger and cargo demand. The lack of new aircraft reduces the possibility of expanding routes or increasing frequencies, impacting both supply and the sector's competitiveness. Furthermore, by having to extend the lifespan of their fleets, companies face greater risks of technical failures, higher repair costs, and reduced environmental efficiency, as older models consume more fuel and generate higher emissions.

To mitigate these effects, IATA and Oliver Wyman recommend a series of measures aimed at strengthening the resilience of the global aviation system. One of the main measures is to open the aftermarket, allowing airlines greater access to spare parts and services outside the traditional manufacturer-controlled model. They also highlight the need to improve transparency in the supply chain, share real-time data among different actors, and use predictive analytics tools to anticipate disruptions and optimize inventories. Furthermore, the study proposes expanding global repair capacity and promoting the use of certified alternative parts to reduce wait times.

Zurab Pololikashvili, Secretary-General of UN Tourism, has repeatedly pointed out that sustainability and efficiency are pillars for the growth of air transport, and this IATA report reinforces that vision from an operational perspective. The lack of coordination between manufacturers, suppliers, and airlines not only represents an economic obstacle but also delays progress toward more sustainable and technologically advanced aviation.

In Latin America, the effects of these difficulties could be felt more acutely. Airlines in the region typically have less bargaining power compared to large international manufacturers and suppliers, making them more vulnerable to delivery delays and cost increases. This could affect fleet modernization plans, especially in markets where fleet renewal is key to competitiveness and efficiency. Furthermore, the region's unique logistical and regulatory challenges amplify the need for cooperation policies and institutional support to strengthen the airline supply chain.

The report concludes that, although the airline industry has demonstrated a remarkable resilience following the pandemic, financial and operational stability will depend on addressing these structural challenges. Stable supply of aircraft, engines, and spare parts is not only essential to maintaining global connectivity, but also to ensuring the safety, sustainability, and profitability of air transport in the coming years.

Source: IATA