Mexican tourism faces a slowdown by the end of 2025, reveals a study by Mirai

After a historic 2024 for Mexican tourism, with more than 45 million international visitors and a contribution of 8.6% to the national GDP, Mexican tourism faces a slowdown in hotel bookings during the last quarter of 2025 and a less dynamic start to 2026.

This is revealed by the most recent snapshot of hotel reservations prepared by Mirai based on an analysis of the direct channel of the hotels they work with. The report, based on the last eight weeks, shows significant declines in both volume and price.

During that period, six of the eight weeks saw declines in the rate of bookings (PickUp Rev), with an average year-over-year decrease of -11% in the average rate per night (ADR). Although the most recent data point to a slight improvement, the balance remains negative and confirms a structural slowdown in the hotel market.

Mirai's report shows that the state of Quintana Roo experienced the greatest contraction, with a -36% drop in bookings and a -9% decline in ADR, affected by the slowdown in US and Canadian tourism.

The state of Jalisco, meanwhile, recorded a 17% decline in pace, although prices remained on the rise (+7%), reflecting a defensive tariff strategy.

In contrast, Mexico City is positioned as the only growing destination, with a 20% increase in sales and a 7% increase in prices, driven by the recovery of the corporate, events, and business travel segments.

Analysis of source markets shows that the slowdown is largely driven by the decline in tourism from the United States (-32% in sales) and Canada (-37% in bookings), traditional pillars of vacation demand. In contrast, the United Kingdom remains an exception in terms of volume growth (+27%), albeit at the expense of a sharp price adjustment (-15% in ADR).

Looking ahead to 2026, Mirai forecasts a weak start to the year, with a cumulative decline of -24% in bookings during the first half of the year. February, March, and April are expected to be the most affected months, while the Mexican domestic market appears to be the only one with sustained growth (+23% in sales and +3% in ADR).

"The pulse of the direct channel confirms a change in the cycle of Mexican hotel demand. The key will be hotels' ability to anticipate, better segment their demand, and optimize their distribution," said Javier Marín, Regional Director & Head of Sales at Mirai.

Even amid uncertainty, Mirai's analysis underscores that hotels with more agile, technologically-driven, and direct-channel-oriented strategies will be best positioned to capitalize on opportunities in a more competitive and selective 2026.

Source: Mirai.