Black Friday 2025: Seven findings (+seven actions) that strengthen the hotel's commercial strategy

The Black Friday phenomenon has ceased to be a one-day event and has transformed into an extended campaign that redefines purchasing intentions. Its reach influences pricing strategies, cancellation management, and the profitability of various distribution channels.

The Mirai team analyzed Black Friday 2024 (November 20–December 3) by cross-referencing data by channel, day, and time, along with cancellation rates, hotel type, length of stay, marketing investment, and return on ad spend (ROAS). The goal: to understand what factors drive demand and how the direct channel can optimize its performance compared to OTAs.

The results reveal a significant impact, with notable increases in web sales for major hotel chains during the analyzed period.

From Black Friday to “Fake Friday”: anticipation dominates demand

Search interest begins a week before the main event. Google identifies the "Fake Friday" phenomenon, which accounts for up to 80% of the volume of Black Friday itself.

Action: Campaigns should be structured to cover a two-week period, prioritizing continuity and progressive visibility in the days leading up to and following the main Friday.

Sales by channel and day: more balanced distribution

The sales pattern shows a homogeneous distribution throughout the campaign, with peaks in the direct channel between November 25 and 26, on the 29th, and from December 1 to 3. OTAs replicate similar behavior, although with greater concentration beforehand.

Action: Establish a price differential favorable to the direct channel, complemented by minimum stay conditions, rate plans and specific restrictions on OTAs.

Cancellations: the direct channel maintains the greatest stability

The average cancellation rate was 37% (38% for urban properties, 35% for vacation properties). In the direct channel, the average drops to 28%, compared to 48% for Booking.com and 35% for Expedia.

Action: Apply stricter cancellation and prepayment policies in intermediary channels, limiting the exposure of plans with high cancellation rates and transferring the best conditions to the direct channel.

Seasonality: Black Friday helps to reduce the seasonality of demand

38% of bookings were concentrated in December, followed by January (14%) and November (12%). The direct channel shows greater effectiveness in the pre-sale of stays for spring and summer, especially in holiday establishments.

Action: For city hotels, optimize December with pricing and availability strategies. For resort hotels, concentrate the best conditions on the website to capture early summer demand.

Average length of stay: the direct channel leads in long stays

58% of bookings are for short stays (1–2 nights) and 33% for medium stays (3–5 nights). However, the direct channel generates 204% more stays of more than 9 nights compared to Booking.com.

Action: Strengthen the value proposition of the direct channel through exclusive benefits for extended stays, adjusting availability and conditions on OTAs for short stays.

Campaign performance: increased return and conversion

During the campaign, hotels increased their advertising investment by 21%, achieving an 82% increase in revenue and an average ROAS of 29 (+51%). Google Hotel Ads performed best, with a ROAS of 50.9 and a conversion rate of 10.8%.

Action: Increase investment on key days and prioritize higher-performing channels (Google and Meta), while maintaining a tactical presence on Bing and metasearch engines with price parity leadership.

Sales by time slot: the direct channel dominates the morning

Peak booking hours are between 10:00 and 21:00. Direct bookings are most popular in the morning (10:00–13:00), while Booking.com gains relevance between 20:00 and 22:00, and Expedia during the early morning hours.

Action: Guarantee favorable parity and competitiveness during nighttime hours to neutralize the weight of OTAs in the last hours of the day, ensuring sustained visibility on the web throughout the daily cycle.

Black Friday as a strategic opportunity

Black Friday presents a key opportunity to strengthen the direct sales channel and consolidate advance bookings to ensure stability in the first half of the year. Participating strategically doesn't mean competing on price, but rather capitalizing on the year's peak in purchase intent with an optimized and profitable distribution strategy.

The analysis confirms that chains that prioritize their direct channel, maintaining the best price and conditions on their website, not only increase their booking volume, but also their operating margin and their independence from OTAs.