Global aviation consolidates its recovery and faces new challenges in 2026

Global aviation has definitively left the crisis period behind and in 2025 confirmed one of the best performances in its recent history. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), passenger demand grew by 5.3% year-on-year, driven primarily by international traffic, which advanced by 7.1%, outpacing domestic markets. This performance reflects a solid recovery, with renewed interest in international travel for both leisure and business.

The growth in demand was accompanied by a nearly equivalent expansion of available capacity, which increased by 5.2% during the year. As a result, the global average load factor reached a record high of nearly 84%, confirming intensive utilization of the global fleet and significant pressure on airport infrastructure. Airports, airlines, and service providers are currently operating at near-capacity levels, in a context where the margin for absorbing peak demand is increasingly narrow.

However, significant structural constraints persist despite these positive results. The aircraft supply chain continues to be affected by delays in the production and delivery of new aircraft, limiting fleet renewal and expansion. This is compounded by pressure on maintenance systems, a shortage of spare parts, and a lack of skilled technical personnel, factors that are forcing many airlines to extend the lifespan of their equipment and reconfigure their growth plans.

Meanwhile, the air cargo market also closed 2025 with positive growth. Global demand increased by 3.4%, driven by the restructuring of logistics chains and greater activity on certain intercontinental routes. Flows between Europe and Asia showed particularly strong performance, while other traditional corridors registered more moderate expansion, in line with the slowdown in some economies and changes in global trade patterns.

Looking ahead to 2026, IATA projects that the industry will maintain its growth trajectory, albeit at a more moderate pace. Passenger demand is expected to increase by around 4.9%, while the cargo segment is projected to grow by 2.4%. Asia-Pacific will continue to lead the expansion, followed by Latin America and the Middle East, regions that show strong potential for connectivity and the development of new markets.

In this context of transformation, IATA Director General Willie Walsh warned during the Changi Aviation Summit 2026 that the industry “no longer faces a demand problem, but a capacity problem.” He indirectly emphasized that current supply chain constraints, aircraft delivery delays, and operational restrictions are preventing airlines from growing at the pace the market demands.

Walsh also stressed that, while the sector achieved a solid recovery after the pandemic, it now faces a more complex stage, where the challenge is not only to grow, but to do so sustainably, efficiently and resiliently, in an environment of high costs, regulatory pressure and increasing environmental demands.

The environmental agenda is another major concern for the industry. The transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) is progressing more slowly than anticipated due to their limited availability and significantly higher costs compared to traditional fuels. This represents a key obstacle to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, while also increasing financial pressure on airlines. Furthermore, carbon offsetting mechanisms and new environmental regulations add further complexity to the situation.

Taken together, the data confirm that global aviation has left the recovery phase behind and is entering a new stage of consolidation, marked by the need to grow efficiently, sustainably and resiliently in the face of an increasingly challenging global environment.

Source: International Air Transport Association (IATA)