The conflict in the Middle East is diverting international tourist demand towards the Southern Mediterranean

As the latest analysis by Mabrian by Data Appeal points out, the escalating tensions in the Middle East are having a significant impact on travel intentions to the Arab Gulf countries, which are registering a significant decline, while destinations in the Southern Mediterranean are capitalizing on a rebound in demand. Meanwhile, countries like Turkey and Egypt are showing divergent trends, reflecting an uneven impact on traveler preferences.

Based on the Search Share Index, Mabrian has assessed the evolution of travel intention using data from millions of international flight searches made between February 28 (the start date of military operations) and March 14, 2026, for travel in the next three months to the six Arab Gulf countries, as well as to Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Morocco, Turkey and Egypt.

Carlos Cendra, Marketing and Communications Director at Mabrian, highlights the “decisive” role of the perception of safety in travelers' confidence, an indicator that “has continued to deteriorate in the Gulf countries since the beginning of the armed conflict in the Middle East.”

Following the start of military operations in Iran on February 28, destinations closest to the affected area have registered the steepest declines and the most unstable evolution of the Security Perceptions Index (SPI). Bahrain, Oman, and Kuwait continue to struggle to recover to previous levels, while the perception of security in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia shows greater resilience and a more stable trend. Qatar has also begun to show this stability since the beginning of March, after a sharp drop in the SPI at the start of the conflict, which has now moderated and is showing signs of recovery.

“The contagion effect on the perception of safety, which we already observed in our preliminary analysis, is maintained in destinations close to the affected region, such as Jordan, Turkey and Egypt; although the latter —Mabrian's spokesperson points out— is showing a more positive evolution, which is also reflected in the travel intention data.”

In the short term, demand is shifting to the Southern Mediterranean. 
International travel intentions to the Gulf countries for the next three months show a notable decline, according to flight searches and market share for these destinations during the almost 20 days analyzed since the start of military operations.

Clear signs of declining demand are observed in the United Arab Emirates (-1.6 percentage points compared to the same period in 2025), as well as in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, while the decline is more moderate in Oman. The only exception is Saudi Arabia, where the Search Share index reflects a slight increase (+0.2 percentage points), “an increase partially driven by the seasonal effect linked to the end of Ramadan, expected between March 19 and 20, although its conversion into actual bookings will depend on how the situation in the region evolves,” Cendra points out.

Conversely, destinations in the Southern Mediterranean are capturing this shift in international demand. Spain leads this growth (+0.4 percentage points), followed by Italy and Morocco, which are registering moderate increases, while France and Greece are showing more modest growth.

Regarding destinations within the Middle East, such as Turkey and Egypt, the data reveals divergent scenarios. Travel intentions to Turkey for the next three months remain below last year's levels, following a slight decline that began in February and intensified with the outbreak of the crisis, resulting in a moderate decrease (-0.5 percentage points). In contrast, Egypt shows an upward trend: after a slight dip the previous month, international travel intentions rebounded strongly, registering a significant increase (+0.5).

Mabrian's expert emphasizes that "the war in the Middle East is a major disruptor of tourism dynamics" and, in this context of great volatility, "tourism intelligence becomes a strategic asset, as it allows destinations and companies to interpret signals and trends, identify risks and detect opportunities, to adapt their strategies with agility and minimize, as far as possible, the impacts."

Fuente: Mabrian / Belvera Partners.