WTTC: The airline industry is the most affected by the conflict in the Middle East

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has warned of the negative effects the conflict in the Middle East is having on global tourism. This conflict is already generating direct and indirect impacts that affect air connectivity, reduce the number of international visitors, increase fuel prices, and raise airfare costs.

The WTTC has identified various levels of impact, especially the loss of connectivity. In this regard, it estimates that 135 million trips globally are at risk in 2026, including 116 million trips outside the Middle East region, due to reduced flight capacity and airspace restrictions. Furthermore, more than 526,000 passengers are not traveling daily due to flight reductions, impacting connectivity between key regions such as Asia, Europe, and Africa, and significantly hindering international travel.

The Middle East plays a vital role in global travel, accounting for approximately 14% of global air traffic. Thus, any disruption impacts airports and flights, hotels, car rental companies, and cruise lines, among others.

Major regional aviation hubs, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Bahrain, which together handle around 526,000 passengers daily, have experienced closures and operational disruptions as the conflict intensifies, significantly affecting regional and global connectivity.

Another significant impact is the increase in aviation fuel prices. Fuel accounts for approximately 30% of an airline's costs, and in recent weeks, its price has seen an unprecedented surge, rising from $95.95 to $197 per barrel, an increase of over 100% in a single month, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This escalation, which even surpasses the rate of increase in crude oil prices, is putting significant pressure on airline profitability.

This situation, combined with the reduction in available seats, translates into an increase in airfare prices, with a more pronounced impact on low-cost airlines, where fuel represents a larger proportion of total costs.

The WTTC warned that an additional negative factor is travel advisories, since when a country issues these warnings, insurers stop covering travelers, discouraging travel. Furthermore, airlines also face difficulties in insuring their operations in the region, which further aggravates the situation.

Gloria Guevara, President and CEO of the WTTC, noted: “This scenario not only affects aviation, but also other sectors, such as maritime transport, where a similar situation is occurring. As a result, both airlines and travelers are impacted by the lack of coverage, which limits travel, even when airports are operating normally and governments are making a significant effort to maintain safe conditions. In this sense, insurance becomes a key factor that directly affects connectivity.”

Despite the current challenges, the WTTC emphasizes that the travel and tourism sector is one of the most resilient in the world. Guevara Manzo added: “The Travel & Tourism sector is the most resilient of all. The impact of international visitor spending across the Middle East is significant, averaging around US$600 million per day, but history shows that the sector can recover quickly, especially when governments support travelers through hotel assistance or repatriation. Our analysis of past crises demonstrates that security-related incidents often see the fastest tourism recovery times, in some cases as little as two months, when governments and the industry work together to restore traveler confidence.”

The WTTC acknowledges the governments that have worked in recent days to support recovery efforts. Clear communication, strong coordination between the public and private sectors, and measures that reinforce security and stability are critical to rebuilding traveler confidence and supporting the sector’s recovery.

The WTTC, which represents the global private sector, is closely monitoring the evolving situation in the Middle East and is in close contact with governments and industry leaders to support traveler safety and the resilience of the global travel and tourism sector.

Source: WTTC.