International aviation on the road to net-zero emissions by 2050

Within the framework of the global challenge to move towards net zero emissions by 2050, the Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association (ALTA), with the technical support of ICF as a specialized consultant, presents the study Net Zero Aviation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Pathways and Trade-offs, which analyzes different alternatives to move towards this goal.

“There is a firm commitment from the industry to achieving Net Zero, but also a recognition that Latin America and the Caribbean face different structural conditions. Therefore, it is essential to rigorously analyze the region's opportunities and challenges to define a roadmap that is realistic and sustainable over time, bearing in mind that aviation is not a luxury, but an engine of economic development: it contributes 3.6% to GDP and supports 2.9% of employment in this part of the world. Ensuring its growth and sustainability is not only key for the industry, but also for the competitiveness and connectivity of our countries,” says Peter Cerdá, CEO of ALTA.

In this regard, ALTA conducted the study in partnership with ICF International, a consulting firm specializing in transportation, sustainable aviation, data analysis and strategies for airlines and tourism.

The process included a review of existing zero-emission policies and goals, a country-by-country data collection effort, and technical visits to gather the most comprehensive and reliable data. Additionally, meetings were held with all stakeholders: national governments, civil aviation authorities, aircraft manufacturers, suppliers, and other interested parties. This information was used to develop reliable projections and scenarios for 2050.

The following findings stand out from the analysis carried out.

Fleet renewal is emerging as one of the most effective measures, enabling significant improvements in fuel efficiency, operating costs, and environmental performance. The study shows that several airlines in Latin America and the Caribbean have made significant progress in this area: currently, 38% of their capacity is operated with new-generation aircraft, surpassing Europe and the United States (34%), with investments already reaching US$40 billion, representing 1,100 new aircraft.

Operational efficiencies are the most immediate and cost-effective measure, with potential savings of up to 11% in emissions. This includes route optimization, reduced ground time, and the use of digital technologies. However, the success of this pillar depends on coordinated action among governments, airports, and air navigation service providers.

Although Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) represent the most powerful long-term tool, their implementation faces significant barriers. SAFs are between 3 and 12 times more expensive than conventional fuel, and their widespread adoption without government incentives could increase costs per seat by $43 and reduce air traffic by 30%. The region has the potential to be a major player in the global SAF industry thanks to its local raw materials; however, scaling up production will require supportive policies, infrastructure, and mechanisms to minimize the cost impact on passengers.

A key finding of the study was the realization of Latin America and the Caribbean's potential in the carbon credit market, thanks to its diverse natural ecosystems, many of which are crucial for global environmental well-being. Between 2020 and 2024, the region issued 23% of global carbon credits, despite contributing only 6.7% of emissions. However, further work is needed to ensure that these nature-based solutions meet the international standards required by the aviation industry. This represents a complementary approach to addressing emissions that cannot be directly reduced.

Taking these points into account, the study highlights that aviation in Latin America and the Caribbean has already made concrete progress in fleet modernization; that operational efficiency, supported by coordinated decisions and well-defined regulatory frameworks, is positioned as one of the most immediate and cost-effective tools for reducing emissions, without disregarding the potential of other alternatives that require more time and specific conditions for implementation. The priority is to lay the foundations for a progressive, inclusive, and sustainable transition for regional aviation, through collaborative work with all stakeholders in the aviation ecosystem.

Source: ALTA.