Air travel demand grew in March, but with strong regional differences

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that global air passenger demand grew 2.1% year-on-year in March 2026, in a scenario marked by strong contrasts between regions and the impact of geopolitical factors.

According to the published data, total traffic—measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs)—showed moderate growth, while capacity—available seat kilometers (ASKs)—decreased by 1.7% compared to the same month of the previous year. As a result, the load factor stood at 83.6%, an improvement of 3.1 percentage points.

The month's performance was heavily influenced by the decline in international traffic in the Middle East. Globally, international demand fell by 0.6%, marking the first contraction since 2021. However, excluding this region, international growth was close to 9%, reflecting a positive trend in most markets.

“Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East, although the sharp drop in traffic in the region limited global growth,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

In contrast, the domestic segment showed solid performance. Domestic demand grew 6.5% year-on-year, accompanied by a 5.6% increase in capacity. The load factor reached 83.0%, driven primarily by markets such as China and Brazil, which recorded double-digit growth. Australia and Japan also stood out, with a significant improvement in their traffic levels.

At the regional level, Asia-Pacific led international growth with an 11.5% increase, boosted by the Lunar New Year and route expansion. Europe also performed well, with a 7.7% rise, highlighted by the strong growth in connections with Asia, which increased by almost 30%.

North America experienced more moderate growth, with a 3.7% increase in demand, while Latin America maintained solid performance with a 12.1% increase. Africa, meanwhile, recorded one of the highest growth rates of the month, with a 19.2% year-on-year increase.

The most critical case was the Middle East, where international demand plummeted by 60.8%, amid conflict that significantly impacted the region's airspace. This situation also affected capacity and occupancy levels.

Beyond March's performance, IATA warned about factors that could influence market trends in the coming months. Among these, the increase in fuel prices stands out, which is already beginning to affect airfares.

Walsh noted that while this factor has not yet impacted demand or bookings, it will be crucial to observe whether the high costs begin to alter passenger behavior. He also warned of potential fuel supply disruptions in Gulf-dependent regions such as Europe and Asia.

Looking ahead to the coming months, the outlook remains positive, with a dynamic peak season anticipated. However, market performance will largely depend on operational stability, cost trends, and the geopolitical context.

In summary, March resulted in moderate growth for the airline industry, but also highlighted the sector's sensitivity to external factors, in a scenario where the recovery continues, albeit unevenly.

Fuente:
International Air Transport Association (IATA)