Sectur announces expectations for 2021 for vacation periods in Mexico

The Secretary of Tourism of the Government of Mexico, Miguel Torruco Marqués, reported that the holiday periods during 2021 will be the following: Holy Week and Easter, from Monday, March 29 to Sunday, April 11; Summer, from Monday, July 5 to Sunday, August 29; and Winter, from Monday, December 20 to Sunday, January 9, 2022.

Likewise, there will be three Long Weekends: from Friday, January 29 to Monday, February 1; from Friday 12 to Monday 15 March; and from Friday 12 to Monday 15 November.

Regarding the expectations of tourist flows during these periods of rest, the head of the Ministry of Tourism (Sectur) indicated that this agency developed three probable scenarios for each of them: Optimistic, Conservative and Pessimistic, based on which He hopes that as the year progresses, they will rise.

Thus, in matters of hotel occupancy, tourist arrivals at the hotel and spills for lodging centers, according to the best estimated scenario, for the Winter season there could be a higher level than that registered in the same period of 2019, with 60.1 percent in 2019 vs. 66.5 percent in 2021 in occupation; 0.7 percent more in 2021 than in 2019 in terms of arrivals; and 1.2 percent higher than 2019 in the economic spill.   

He specified that for the Holy and Easter weeks, the Optimistic scenario raises a hotel occupancy of 65.4 percent; the arrival of five million 726 thousand tourists to lodging centers; and a spill for this concept of thirteen thousand 937 million pesos. Conservative: 57.9 percent occupancy; the arrival of five million 69 thousand tourists; and a spill of twelve thousand 251 million pesos. And Pessimistic: occupation of 50.9 percent; arrival of four million 456 thousand tourists: and it spills ten thousand 720 million pesos.

For the Summer vacations, the Optimistic scenario estimates a hotel occupancy of 61.5 percent; the arrival of 23 million 593 thousand tourists; and a spill of 56 thousand 675 million pesos. El Conservador: 55.5 percent occupancy; arrival of 21 million 291 thousand tourists; and spills 50 thousand 740 million pesos. Pessimistic: 48.7 percent occupancy; arrival of 18 million 682 thousand tourists to lodging centers; and a spill of 44 thousand 298 million pesos.

While for the Winter holidays, the Optimistic scenario has the expectation of a hotel occupancy that reaches 66.5 percent; the arrival of nine million 227 thousand tourists; and a spill in lodging centers of 21 thousand 330 million pesos. Conservative: 60.5 percent occupancy; arrival of 8 million 395 thousand tourists; and a spill of 19 thousand 269 million pesos. And Pessimistic: 54 percent occupancy; arrival of seven million 493 thousand tourists; with a spill of 17 thousand 149 million pesos.

Regarding the expectations for Long Weekends, Secretary Torruco Marqués indicated that for the first, corresponding to the commemoration of February 5, the Optimistic scenario foresees a hotel occupancy of 61.6 percent; the arrival of one million 446 thousand tourists to hotels; and an economic benefit in lodging centers of three thousand 483 million pesos. While the Conservative: occupation of 55.1 percent; arrival of one million 269 thousand tourists; and a spill of three thousand 14 million pesos. Pessimistic: 47.1 percent occupancy; the arrival of one million 106 thousand tourists; and a spill of 2.6 billion pesos.

For the second, which commemorates March 21, the Optimistic scenario marks a hotel occupancy of 63.4 percent; the arrival of one million 501 thousand tourists; and a spill of 3,621 million pesos. Conservative: 57.9 percent occupancy; arrival of one million 357 thousand tourists; and a spill of 3,230 million pesos. Pessimistic: 49.9 percent occupancy; arrival of one million 181 thousand tourists; and a spill of two thousand 786 million pesos.

While for the third and last Long Week Weekend of the year, corresponding to the celebration of November 20, the Optimistic scenario shows an occupancy of 66.5 percent; the arrival of one million 694 thousand travelers; and a spill of four thousand 42 million pesos. Conservative: 61 percent occupancy; arrival of one million 553 thousand tourists; and a spill of 3,670 million pesos. Finally, the Pessimistic scenario poses an average hotel occupancy of 56.1 percent; the arrival of one million 429 thousand tourists to the hotel; and a spill for lodging that would amount to three thousand 343 million pesos.