As many countries around the world once again face record hot summers and climate change seems to be here to stay, could winter be the new summer for tourism?
Carlos Cendra of Mabrian, experts in travel intelligence, to see if they had any data to suggest how tourists respond to extreme heat waves. He tells us that while you might think many travelers pay for heat and appreciate it, the data doesn't bear this out: "This year it might be too early to judge, but if you look at our own data, based on the Mabrian Index of Weather Perception - which uses advanced techniques of natural language processing, artificial intelligence and machine learning to analyze social networks in real time - last summer in France, Greece and Spain, tourists were on average less satisfied with the weather than the year before (which was much cooler)."
Other Mabrian data shows that, by contrast, tourists who visited the UK last summer showed an improved overall perception of weather compared to 2021. Coincidence? You decide. They have also observed that dissatisfied travelers over time are more likely to rate their hotels and destinations in general with lower approval ratings.
Assuming the rising heat trend is going to continue - and all the scientific evidence points in that direction - how long will it be before we have to rethink our whole approach to "summer vacation" as an industry?
Martin Eade, of booking engine technology provider Vibe, believes there are two obvious answers: "Travellers might start visiting physically cooler places during the summer months, or they might start to change the timing of their visit, for example by coming much earlier or much later in the season." His view is that we will see a mix of both, and therefore providers and sellers of travel with products in the coldest places should already be thinking about boosting their marketing when heat waves hit.
For his part, Gareth Matthews, Marketing Director of Didatravel, a global bank for hotel beds, comments that "although we are not yet seeing any immediate change in our booking patterns, assuming that the increase in temperatures causes changes in the future, this It won't necessarily mean the British or Germans start holidaying on Danish beaches - instead it might mean they book more in northern France or northern Spain - both areas reasonably and reliably warm in summer - for so, in the medium and long term, the sector could begin to focus more on these regions."
Certainly, in hotels in warmer regions we are likely to see changes in terms of improved air conditioning, moving covered public spaces, and perhaps catering operations that start earlier or last until midnight. night to avoid the hottest periods, says Sebastien Leitner, vice president of partnerships at Cloudbeds, a technology provider for independent hotels: "Features like these can make your property stand out in a crowded marketplace and we would encourage hoteliers to promote those features in your website and on OTA listings."
According to Katie Crowe of battleface travel insurer, travel insurance products that adapt to today's environment with customization options will continue to drive innovation. Katie believes that unbundled, technology-driven, and modular unique feature products will be able to adequately address these new models. Insurers will be able to set more precise prices based on risk, while customers will create their policies based on their actual needs.
For providers of in-destination services like tours and activities, it could be a double-edged sword, says Douglas Quinby of destination research and events company Arival: "If you do charter fishing charters in Alaska, it can be good news, but if you're a tour guide in Rome, it's not clear, in any case, you're going to have to respond and think about how to adapt your product and market your services." He also points out that pricing, scheduling and even staffing could suffer if the same number of travelers start visiting the country for longer seasons, thereby increasing costs.
From a technological point of view, this introduces many needs and therefore also opportunities for travel intermediaries. For example, search filters on travel websites could start to include an "average temperature" option or a weather information feature to guide users on what to expect where and when.
From a revenue management point of view, Alex Barros of the BEONx revenue management platform believes that peak season pricing will need to be rethought: "Maybe we can tie prices to temperatures instead of date ranges ", while noting that "there is also the opportunity to cross-sell products and services that respond to the need to stay cool, such as access passes to swimming pools or indoor activities."
While there are still many unknowns about climate change and how humans will respond, one thing is for sure: change will be the only constant, and travel companies failing to consider it as a risk factor and something to respond to they will continually probably experience a different, but no less definitive, type of "climatic extinction."
Source: Belvera Partners.