The Airports Council International of Latin America and the Caribbean (ACI-LAC) has published airport traffic projections for the region in the period 2023-2052, based on the ACI World Airport Traffic Forecasts 2023-2052 report, and preliminary data of traffic in 2023.
Airport traffic projections
In 2052, 1.79 billion passengers are expected to use Latin American and Caribbean airports, up from 740 million in 2023. In 2052, the region will account for 7.3% of global passenger traffic, down from 8.5%. of the year 2023. This is due to the great growth expected in the Asia-Pacific region, which will go from 34.5% currently to 46.2% in 2052. Total global passengers in 2052 are expected to be 24,487 million, compared to the current 8,692 million.
Passenger traffic in Latin America and the Caribbean is estimated to increase 2.4 times until 2052 relative to current levels. According to the projection, the five most important markets will be Mexico (484 million), Brazil (425 million), Colombia (232 million), Argentina (134 million) and Peru (130 million).
According to ACI-LAC traffic projections, the estimate is that passenger traffic in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2032 will exceed one billion people, with the five countries with the highest air traffic being Brazil (305 million), Mexico (266 million), Colombia (140 million), Argentina (72 million) and Peru (68 million).
By 2024, the forecast is that airport traffic will be 795 million passengers. The expectation is that the five countries with the highest volume of passengers transported are Brazil (230 million), Mexico (196 million), Colombia (105 million), Argentina (49 million) and Peru (42.6 million).
This year, international traffic in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to represent 31% of total air traffic in the region. The percentage of international traffic in the five main markets should be as follows: Mexico (32%), Chile (31%), Argentina (26%), Peru (23%), Colombia (21%) and Brazil (10.8%). %).
“Despite being the region that recovered the fastest after the pandemic, Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to experience growth below the global average in the coming years. Between 2023 and 2032, the cumulative average growth rate (CAGR) is projected to be 4.4% against an overall global average of 5.8%. A point that deserves to be highlighted is the prospects for Brazil. The country is expected to remain the first largest market until 2032, despite having the lowest percentage of international passengers in Latin America and the Caribbean and among the BRIC countries (average of 14%). These data point to the enormous potential of the Brazilian air market for international air traffic,” said Dr. Rafael Echevarne, General Director of ACI-LAC.
2023 results
Preliminary 2023 traffic data collected by ACI from 217 airports in Latin America and the Caribbean show that total passengers in the region grew 12% from 2022 to 2023. Growth in the extended period, from 2019 to 2023, was 5.9%, demonstrating that LAC was the region in the world with the greatest recovery in post-pandemic passenger traffic. In fact, our region is the only one globally with international and domestic traffic above 2019 levels. Globally, 2023 traffic was still 6.2% below 2019, but 27.2% below above 2022.
According to data from the Brazilian Ministry of Ports and Airports, the country recorded a reduction in air traffic between 2019 and 2023 of 4.5%, however showing a satisfactory recovery last year, registering a growth of 13.4%.
Among the country's main airports, two have already exceeded 2019 levels: Santos Dumont Airport (+25%) and Campinas/Viracopos International Airport (+16%). São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport, Brazil's largest, still remained 4% below pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels; Congonhas Airport, the second in terms of air traffic, reached 98% compared to 2019.
Regarding the results, Rafael Echevarne, General Director of ACI-LAC, stated that “2023 was consolidated as the year of recovery of airport traffic in Latin America and the Caribbean, when all countries in the region exceeded the levels of the previous year. . Most markets are already above pre-pandemic traffic and by 2024 all are expected to end up with traffic above 2019 levels.”