The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published updated roadmaps to achieving net-zero emissions, containing expanded and more in-depth analysis and highlighting four key findings:
The energy transition of the air transport industry is feasible by 2050.
The investment amounts required to make this possible are comparable to those made in previous creations of new renewable energy markets.
The success of the transition depends fundamentally on the unity of purpose of those responsible for the policy.
The time left to join forces on the energy transition of air transport is getting shorter by the minute. Every action delayed is a missed opportunity.
“IATA’s updated policy and financial roadmaps to net zero make clear that decarbonisation is achievable by 2050. They also sound the alarm that to get there, all stakeholders, particularly policymakers, need to collaborate more broadly and act with greater urgency. To succeed, we need clear policy and financial frameworks that support the needs of air transport in a way that is realistic and consistent with the massive changes that need to happen simultaneously across all economic sectors,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
The policy roadmap highlights the importance of strategic policy sequencing and addresses the need for global collaboration, including beyond the aviation sector. The recommendations recognise that there is no one-size-fits-all solution and that policies must ensure that all countries can participate in the future global market for sustainable aviation fuels.
Highlights include:
Immediate action is needed to unlock Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs) and prioritise SAF in the product mix at refineries.
A strategic policy sequence that combines measures to boost technology and attract demand will be critical. Governments must also foster global, liquid and transparent markets for cleaner aviation energy.
Transformative collaboration between governments, the aviation sector and all sectors to remove existing barriers and promote investment in new technologies, fossil fuels and infrastructure. This recognises that decarbonising air transport is part of the broader global energy transition. Creating a global fossil fuel accounting framework is also essential to ensure transparency and avoid double counting of the environmental benefits of fossil fuels. Addressing the current fragmentation in fossil fuel certification and carbon offset processes should also be part of that effort.
The financial roadmap provides a detailed overview of the investments needed to reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and the costs for airlines to procure the new solutions. Identifying the number of new biorefineries that need to be built and highlighting that their output will benefit the energy transition of all industries should help focus minds and promote the unity of purpose among policymakers that is necessary for a successful transition.
Highlights include:
Average annual investments required: To reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the average annual capital expenditure needed to build the new facilities over the 30-year period is about USD 128 billion per year in the best-case scenario – significantly less than the estimated sum of total investments in the solar and wind energy markets at USD 280 billion per year between 2004 and 2022. Success would be facilitated if governments redirected fossil fuel subsidies to renewable energy production, of which SAF is just one type of product.
The annual transition cost – the cost added to jet fuel as a result of purchasing SAF, hydrogen and other key elements – is estimated at USD 1.4 billion in 2025. By 2050, the transition cost could reach USD 744 billion, according to IATA’s analysis. These figures highlight the need for speed and scale to bring solutions to market so that net-zero CO2 emissions can be achieved.
“The costs and challenges associated with the energy transition are great, but the opportunities are even greater. Countries have the opportunity to create new industries in the agriculture and energy sectors, and to benefit from the catalytic impact of the growth of sustainable air transport. To seize the opportunities, we need all minds to unite in this mission, and for all policymakers, multilateral organisations, investors, solution providers and the air transport industry to work together. This transformative collaboration can pool resources and guide meaningful action to achieve greater impact. This is what is needed to achieve a sustainable air transport industry by 2050,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President, Sustainability and Chief Economist.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) will also create the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Matchmaker (SAF) to link airlines and SAF suppliers. The development was announced at the World Sustainability Symposium (WSS) and is scheduled to be launched in the first quarter of 2025.
“Our vision is to create a transparent, efficient and accessible matchmaking platform that accelerates the adoption of SAF as the aviation industry moves towards net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. The platform will do so by reducing the costs and complications airlines face when seeking SAF providers. The maturity and globalization of the SAF market will be enhanced by the transparency that SAF Matchmaker will enable. Every step in that direction is of great importance, considering that SAF is the most important decarbonization tool for air transport,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, Senior Vice President, Sustainability and Chief Economist at IATA.
Specifically, the SAF Matchmaker will address three critical issues:
Connectivity: SAF producers and suppliers will be able to publish available or planned SAF volumes and airlines will be able to register their interest in purchasing displayed or desired SAF volumes. Any subsequent transactions will be conducted outside the platform.
Visibility: The platform will carry comprehensive information on available SAF, such as volumes, raw materials used, production location and technology, emissions reductions, as well as compliance with the Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) or the European Union Renewable Energy Directive (EU RED).
Efficiency: The availability of a central platform will simplify SAF procurement by allowing all parties to connect more easily and quickly. It will also facilitate the development of market intelligence based on the data that the platform will generate.
The initial focus of the platform will be airlines and SAF suppliers. In the future, governments and non-aviation corporate SAF buyers will also be able to participate.
Source: IATA.