Global production of sustainable aviation fuel is slowly growing

In 2024, SAF production volumes reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion litres), double the 0.5 million tonnes (600 million litres) produced in 2023. SAF accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel*.

This is significantly below previous estimates that projected SAF production in 2024 of 1.5 million tonnes (1.9 billion litres), as major SAF production facilities in the US have delayed their production until the first half of 2025.

By 2025, SAF production is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes (2.7 billion litres), or 0.7% of total jet fuel production and 13% of global renewable fuel capacity*.

“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies, which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas. And investors in next-generation fuel producers appear to be waiting for assurances of easy money before going full steam ahead. With airlines, the core of the value chain, earning only a 3.6% net margin, return expectations for SAF investors need to be slow and steady, not fast and furious. But make no mistake: airlines are eager to buy SAF and investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonisation can make money. Governments can accelerate progress by removing subsidies for fossil fuel production and replacing them with strategic production incentives and clear policies that support a renewable-based future, including SAF,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Aviation is part of the global energy transition

“Decarbonising the airline industry needs to be seen as part of the global energy transition, not compartmentalised as a transport issue. This is because solving the energy transition challenge for aviation will also benefit the wider economy, as renewable fuel refineries will produce a wide range of fuels used by other industries, with only a small portion being SAF, used by airlines. We need everyone producing as much renewable energy as possible for everyone. Airlines simply want access to their fair share of that production,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist.

According to IATA’s analysis, achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 will require between 3,000 and more than 6,500 new renewable fuel plants, which will also produce renewable diesel and other fuels for other industries. The average annual capital expenditure needed to build the new facilities over the 30-year period is about $128 billion per year in the best-case scenario. Importantly, this amount is significantly lower than the estimated total sum of investments in the solar and wind energy markets of $280 billion per year between 2004 and 2022.

“Governments must quickly offer concrete policy incentives to rapidly ramp up renewable energy production. A model for the transition to wind and solar already exists. The good news is that the energy transition, which includes wind and solar, will need less than half the annual investments required to achieve large-scale wind and solar production. And a good part of the necessary financing could be obtained by redirecting a part of the retrograde subsidies that governments give to the fossil fuel industry,” said Walsh.

Short-term measures
Progress in expanding SAF production and use could be accelerated in three key ways:

Increase co-processing: Existing refineries can be used to co-process up to 5% of approved renewable feedstocks alongside crude oil streams. This solution can be implemented quickly and requires minimal investments in materials. It should be urgently scaled up to allow for a larger amount of renewable feedstocks to be co-processed. By 2050, co-processing could save $347 billion in capital expenditure as more than 260 new renewable fuel plants would not need to be built.

Diversifying SAF production: There are 11 certified pathways to produce SAF, but the HEFA method (hydrotreated fatty acid esters (used cooking oil, animal fats, etc.)) accounts for around 80% of production over the next five years. SAF volumes could be boosted by increasing investments to scale up production through other certified pathways, in particular Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), which use biological and agricultural waste and residues.

Create a global accounting framework for SAF fuel: A registry that allows airlines to benefit from the environmental attributes of their SAF fuel purchases and to be able to claim them under their obligations in a transparent way that avoids double counting is essential. Such a registry is necessary to achieve a global SAF fuel market where all airlines can buy SAF fuel and all SAF fuel producers can sell their fuel to airlines.

Passenger support

A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF. Some 86% of travellers agreed that governments should offer production incentives to enable airlines to access SAF. In addition, 86% agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.

Source: IATA.