The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects supply chain issues to continue to weigh on airline performance through 2025, increasing costs and limiting growth.
The average age of the world fleet has risen to a record 14.8 years, a significant increase from the average of 13.6 years for the period 1990-2024.
Aircraft deliveries have fallen sharply from a peak of 1,813 aircraft in 2018. The estimate for 2024 deliveries is 1,254 aircraft, 30% lower than forecast at the start of the year. In 2025, deliveries are forecast to rise to 1,802, well below previous expectations of 2,293 deliveries, and further downward revisions in 2025 are seen as highly likely.
The backlog (cumulative number of orders pending delivery) for new aircraft has reached 17,000 aircraft, an all-time high. At the current pace of deliveries, it would take 14 years to complete the backlog, double the six-year average of backlogs for the 2013-2019 period. However, the lead time is expected to shorten as delivery rates increase.
The number of “parked” aircraft is 14% (approximately 5,000 aircraft) of the total fleet (35,166 as of December 2024, including Russian-made aircraft). While this has improved recently, parked aircraft are still 4 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels (equivalent to about 1,600 aircraft). Of these, 700 (2% of the global fleet) are parked for engine inspections. We expect this situation to persist until 2025.
“Supply chain issues are frustrating all airlines with a triple whammy on revenue, costs and environmental performance. Load factors are at all-time highs and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft they could be deployed profitably, so our revenues are being compromised. Meanwhile, the ageing fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel and requires more capital to keep it flying. And, on top of this, lease rates have risen more than interest rates as competition between airlines intensified the scramble to find every possible way to expand capacity. This is a time when airlines must fix their battered post-pandemic balance sheets, but progress is effectively limited by supply chain issues that manufacturers must resolve,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Specifically, IATA noted that persistent supply chain problems are at least partially responsible for two negative developments:
Fuel efficiency (excluding the impact of load factors) remained unchanged between 2023 and 2024 at 0.23 litres/100 available tonne-kilometres (ATK). This represents a setback from the long-term trend (1990-2019) of annual fuel efficiency improvements in the range of 1.5-2.0%.
Exceptional demand for leased aircraft drove narrowbody lease rates to levels 20-30% higher than in 2019.
“The entire aviation sector is united in its commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. But when it comes to the feasibility of achieving this, airlines are the ones bearing the greatest burden. Supply chain issues are a clear example. Manufacturers are letting down their customers, the airlines, and that is having a direct impact on slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions. If aircraft and engine manufacturers could solve their problems and deliver on their promises, we would have a more fuel-efficient fleet in the air,” said Walsh.
Source: IATA.