Based on a systems dynamics approach, the report identifies four key scenarios that project possible trajectories for the impact of AI on electricity consumption.
The report “Artificial Intelligence and Electricity: A System Dynamics Approach”, authored by Rémi Paccou, Director of the Sustainability Research Institute at Schneider Electric, and Professor Fons Wijnhoven, Associate Professor at the University of Twente, Netherlands, examines the relationship between AI and electricity demand over the next decade. This system dynamics model explores various scenarios with the aim of understanding the complex factors shaping the future of energy consumption, highlighting sustainable strategies and policies to mitigate the environmental impact of AI.
Four possible scenarios for the impact of AI
The authors propose four scenarios that should not be understood as predictions, but as tools to analyze future possibilities:
Sustainable AI Scenario
This scenario proposes a harmonious integration between technology and the environment. AI is positioned as a key tool to optimize energy efficiency in data centers, using renewable sources, demand electrification and intelligent network management. Thanks to the adoption of efficient algorithms and hardware, technological progress is balanced within planetary boundaries, showing that AI can be part of the solution to energy challenges.
Limits to Growth Scenario
Here, AI development faces significant barriers such as energy, data and materials shortages, as well as regulatory constraints. These limitations slow technological advancement, creating mismatches in value chains and requiring stricter regulations that align AI progress with global sustainability goals.
Borderless Abundance Scenario
This scenario reflects uncontrolled AI growth driven by improvements in energy efficiency that, paradoxically, increase total energy consumption. The lack of governance in technological expansion exacerbates problems such as concentration of power, generation of electronic waste and overexploitation of resources, hindering decarbonization efforts.
Energy Crisis Scenario
A crisis scenario is anticipated where the accelerated and uncoordinated growth of AI causes conflicts between its electrical demand and other critical economic sectors. This generates operational instability, adverse economic impacts and the urgent need for strict regulations to contain the energy imbalance.
Schneider Electric highlights that the impact of AI on energy consumption will depend on the decisions taken today by governments, companies and society. The report, developed by the Sustainability Research Institute, seeks to encourage reflections and concrete actions that balance technological progress with planetary boundaries.
Argentina, with its abundance of renewable energy such as solar and wind, and measures such as the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), has an opportunity to lead in sustainable technological infrastructure and attract international investment.
Global demand for cloud services and the need to reduce the carbon footprint highlight the importance of sustainable data centers. Key decisions in investment, regulation and talent development will be decisive in positioning the country in the technological revolution led by AI.
Fuente: Schneider Electric