Boeing forecasts stable demand for more than 40,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years

Emerging markets, with expanding middle classes, dynamic and competitive airline networks, and sustainable investments in aviation, will play a key role in the growth of global air traffic, generating the need for 43,600 commercial airplanes over the next 20 years, according to Boeing's projections.

These markets will account for more than 50% of the global commercial fleet in 2044, up from nearly 40% in 2024. Ahead of the Paris Air Show, Boeing released its 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which also forecasts that airplane supply will match market demand by the end of the decade, allowing airlines to renew and expand their fleets.

“During the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled, while the commercial aviation industry faced significant challenges,” said Brad McMullen, senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing at Boeing. “Resilience will continue to be a hallmark of this growing industry as we see strong demand for new airplanes, with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”

Highlights from the CMO's 2044 forecast:

Passenger traffic is expected to grow 4.2% annually, more than doubling as it continues to outpace global economic growth.

The global fleet will nearly double, reaching more than 49,600 commercial aircraft, as airlines add capacity to meet demand.

Approximately 80% of the aircraft in operation will be replaced through more than 21,000 deliveries, improving fleet efficiency and capacity.

Single-aisle aircraft will account for 72% of the global fleet, up from 66% in 2024, driven primarily by short-haul and low-cost carriers in emerging markets.

The global widebody passenger aircraft fleet will increase to approximately 8,320 units, up from around 4,400 in 2024, growth driven by airlines in emerging markets expanding their long-haul fleets.

Supply chain diversification and the expansion of express freight networks will drive a nearly two-thirds expansion of the global freighter fleet and the need for 2,900 production and conversion freighters.

Air transport trends:

Air networks serve approximately 30% more airport pairs than a decade ago, offering more convenient direct flight options.

As a discretionary spending measure, travel spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels as consumers prioritize air travel.

Fuente: Boeing.