Airfares, a barrier to tourism growth in Latin America

Airfare affordability continues to be a structural challenge for tourism development in Latin America, as reflected in the analysis of airfare forecasts for the coming months conducted by Mabrian, the global tourism intelligence and strategic consulting firm. The data reveal a mixed picture, with moderate increases, strategic readjustments, and sharp declines, influenced by geopolitical factors and market dynamics that could redefine regional tourism competitiveness through the end of 2025.

Mabrian, part of The Data Appeal Company – Almawave Group, analyzed forecasts for average airfares for travel over the next six months on all regional, U.S., and European routes connecting seven key destinations in Latin America: Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico. The analysis compares forecast prices, published by online travel agencies (OTAs), for one-way direct flights with the same period in 2024.

During the Wings of Change Americas conference, organized by IATA in Bogotá on June 25 and 26, the economic importance of air transport in the region was highlighted: 8.3 million jobs and USD 240 billion in GDP. However, according to IATA data, Latin American citizens take an average of just 0.65 flights per year, far below the 2.5 flights in North America or the 4.5 in Spain.

“Air connectivity provides opportunities for economic growth, fosters regional mobility, and strengthens Latin America's attractiveness as a tourist destination,” explains Carlos Cendra, partner and director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian. “To boost air travel demand in Latin America, it is crucial to expand connectivity networks, allowing for more players and alternatives, and making air travel more accessible.”

Moderate increases and strategic adjustments in domestic and regional rates

According to Mabrian's analysis, the expected behavior of average fares on domestic routes is diverse. While Argentina and Mexico are registering year-on-year declines of -10%, and Colombia -6.6%, countries such as Chile and Brazil are experiencing increases exceeding +10%, with increases of +11.3% and +12.2% respectively. In the case of Peru, domestic prices remain relatively stable, with a variation of just +1.7%.

The average price of domestic flights in countries with more extensive national networks is around USD 100: this is the case in Uruguay (USD 98), Argentina (USD 105), Mexico (USD 128) and Brazil (USD 135), and remains lower in Colombia (USD 83), Chile (USD 69) and Peru (USD 70), which, in the words of Cendra, "benefits these destinations, which are managing to capture a greater share of regional demand," says Cendra.

Regarding international routes within Latin America, fares also show variations, ranging from an average of USD 245 in Colombia, USD 309 in Peru, USD 419 in Brazil, and USD 474 in Mexico. In the year-over-year comparison, average fare increases stand out in Colombia (+8.6%) and Uruguay (+7.8%), while Argentina (+1.6%), Peru (+2.3%), and Chile (+3.6%).

On the other hand, average flight prices to other Latin American countries are projected to decline in Mexico (-7.1%) and Brazil (-8.4%), the only markets where average fares for interregional connections exceed USD 400.

Airfares to the United States decrease, and to Europe they increase.

“Our data intelligence reveals a clear trend: average fares on routes connecting Latin America with the United States are consistently declining, in some cases by as much as 50% year-over-year,” says Cendra. All the routes analyzed show year-over-year declines in average fares, some very pronounced, such as Chile (-50.3%), Brazil (-25.3%), and Argentina (-24.9%). More moderate declines are also observed in Colombia (-14.4%), Mexico (-9.2%), and Peru (-8%).

"Geopolitical factors are influencing this atypical behavior, which represents an opportunity to stimulate U.S. visits to Latin America toward the end of 2025." According to the Mabrian expert, "it is also helping to boost outbound tourism, both domestic and regional."

On the other hand, fares on routes connecting Latin America with Europe are increasing in almost all markets. The most moderate year-on-year increases are seen in Peru (+2.4%), Chile (+2.5%), Argentina (+4.4%), and Uruguay (+4.5%), while the most significant increases are observed in Colombia (+13%) and Mexico (+16.5%). Brazil is the only country to buck this trend, with a -6.5% drop in average fares to Europe.

Source: Mabrian.