New report reveals that in early 2024 global air demand will reach 2019 levels
A study published by Bain & Company highlights that world air traffic would reach 79.77% by December 2022 and 91.24% by December 2023 (versus 2019 figures)
Projected global air traffic for 2021 continues to decline, as the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19 has weakened consumer confidence in travel and significantly dampened recovery prospects for long-haul flights in the United States. next six to nine months.
Since the last forecast made by Bain & Company in August, this year's projected global airline industry revenue declined by about $ 12 billion, with an estimated total of $ 243 billion, 36% of total airline revenue. sector in 2019.
Projected air traffic between Europe and North America has decreased as a result of continued flight restrictions by the United States and the removal of this country from the European Union's safe travel list. Meanwhile, China is expected to remain largely closed to international travel for much of the first half of 2022.
According to Bain & Company's recovery scenarios, global air demand is estimated to reach 40% in October 2021, 44.27% in November and 45.97% in December this year (vs. 2019 figures).
While, the recovery of world air demand would reach 79.77% for December 2022 and 91.24% for December 2023 (vs. 2019 figures), according to current conditions. However, with an accelerated vaccination, recovery above 90% could occur in October 2022.
Estimates for the North American intraregional market indicate that in September 2021 it registered a recovery of 76.25% (vs 2019), that is, 5% lower than the August indices. While for October 2021 the recovery is expected to remain at 73.71%, 2.5% less than the previous month.
By December 2021, the North American intraregional market is expected to reach a recovery of 77.39%, 6.6% less in contrast to last month's projections, and until January 2023 it would register a recovery greater than 90% (vs. figures 2019).
According to Bain's projections, air passenger traffic in Mexico in July 2022 will be 76% of what was registered in July 2019, that is, 13% less than forecast the previous month. While the United States would register 83% and Canada 73% (vs. 2019 figures).
Like Mexico, other countries whose recovery projections for July 2022 that fell by 13 or more percentage points in the last month are Japan, going from 76% to 55% and Australia from 83% to 66%.