Over the next 20 years, aircraft deliveries and commercial services will be worth $10.8 trillion

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Over the next 20 years, aircraft deliveries and commercial services will be worth $10.8 trillion
Source: Boeing
July 18, 2022

The data has been revealed in a new statement published by Boeing

With international air travel resuming and recovery underway in many domestic markets, Boeing today projected demand for more than 41,000 new aircraft through 2041, highlighting the resilience of the aviation industry two years into the pandemic. The assessment is part of the Commercial Market Outlook 2022 (CMO), released ahead of the Farnborough International Air Show, which brings the company's long-term annual forecast.

The CMO forecasts a market value of $7.2 trillion for new aircraft deliveries, with an 80% increase in the global fleet through 2041 compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Around half of passenger aircraft deliveries will replace current models, improving the fuel efficiency and sustainability of the global fleet. In addition, Boeing Global Services forecasts $3.6 trillion in demand across its market segments over the same period, including strong demand for maintenance and modifications, such as converted freighters; digital solutions that increase efficiency and reduce costs; and for pilots and technicians.

"Despite unprecedented disruption over the past two years, the aviation industry has shown incredible resilience in adapting to the challenge," said Ihssane Mounir, senior vice president of Global Sales & Marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Based on our extensive experience in forecasting market trends, the 2022 CMO demonstrates the strong demand for new aircraft and associated services in the coming decades, providing insights as the industry continues to recover."

The 2022 CMO includes these regional projections over the next 20 years:

· Continuing its strong growth story, Asian markets account for approximately 40% of long-term global demand for new aircraft. Europe and North America each account for just over 20% of demand, with 15% of deliveries coming from other regions.

· The South Asian fleet continues to lead global growth, at 6.2% annually. Led by India, the region's fleet is set to nearly quadruple from 700 planes in 2019 to more than 2,600 planes by 2041. Southeast Asia is projected to have the second-fastest growth with its commercial fleet nearly tripling to 4,500 planes.

· The CMO this year does not include a forecast for aircraft deliveries in Russia due to sanctions against aircraft exports. This change reduces global 20-year demand by around 1,500 aircraft compared to last year's CMO.

Single-aisle aircraft should total nearly 31,000 aircraft and will account for 75% of all new deliveries – the same rate as CMO last year. Through 2041, new wide-body aircraft will account for approximately 18% of deliveries with more than 7,230 aircraft, enabling airlines to serve new and existing passenger and cargo markets more efficiently.

The CMO also predicts continued strong demand for dedicated freighters to support global supply chains and growing express networks. Carriers will need an additional 2,800 freighters, including 940 new wide-body models plus converted narrow- and wide-body freighters during the forecast period.

Boeing provides the CMO annually for more than 60 years. As the longest running aircraft forecast, it is considered the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. Learn more about the CMO here. Additionally, Boeing will release its Pilot and Technician Forecast on July 25.


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