Encouraging forecast for the US hotel industry

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Encouraging forecast for the US hotel industry
Source: Hilton
August 15, 2022

A report by STR and Tourism Economics reveals data that revenue per available room (RevPAR) remains on track to fully recover this year in nominal terms

STR and Tourism Economics adjusted occupancy lower but raised projections once again for the average daily rate (ADR) in the revised US hotel forecast just released at the 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) remains on track to fully recover this year in nominal terms, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation.

The updated forecast adds just over $2 to the ADR projection for 2022 and 2023. Occupancy is down less than one percentage point each year.

“Leisure demand, as expected, has reached significant levels this summer, and what we are hearing on earnings calls and from our industry peers would indicate that group business travel should be much more in line with pre-Soviet patterns. the pandemic in the fall and winter,” he said. Amanda Hite, president of STR. “Our downward occupancy adjustment was largely focused on a slowdown in the economy segment, which is likely due to a mix of leisure travelers who want higher levels of accommodations and budget travelers who are out of business. market. Inflation remains the key consideration in our ADR discussions, but hotels continue to show strong pricing power. There are reasons to be concerned about the economy, ongoing challenges around the workforce and transient businesses still lagging behind, but the hospitality industry is on solid footing. U.S 

"Oxford Economics' basic outlook sees slow economic growth in 2023, but not a recession, as a combination of cooling aggregate demand and easing supply constraints will help curb inflation," said Aran Ryan, director of Oxford Economics. lodging analysis in Tourism Economics. “In this context, with leisure demand supported by strong family finances and a continued recovery in business and group travel, gains in accommodation performance are expected to continue, albeit at a much slower pace than previously experienced this year".


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